How We Predict Emission Likelihood
Curious about the chance of an emission event happening near you in the next few days? Think of it like forecasting the chance of rain.
Here's how our prediction system works:
- Looking Back: We analyze where and when emission events have occurred recently across Texas counties.
- Checking the Weather: We include weather forecast information, as conditions like wind and temperature can sometimes influence emissions.
Making the Prediction
Our system uses a statistical method that has learned patterns from historical data. It looks at how past emissions and weather conditions related to new emission events happening.
Based on these learned patterns and the upcoming weather forecast, the system calculates the probability – the likelihood or chance – that an emission event might occur in each county for each of the next three days.
Disclaimer: It's important to remember these predictions aren't perfect. We don't have inside information from the facilities about their specific operational conditions, maintenance schedules, or potential process upsets that can also lead to emissions.